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Cake day: August 8th, 2024

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  • And now move to the next election, 1860, in which the third party once again disappeared. No term-over-term progress made. I see no evidence any current minor parties are faring any better.

    Huh?

    That party’s candidate—i.e. that third party’s candidate—i.e. the Republican party’s candidate—Abe Lincoln—won the US Presidency. (and with less than 40% of the popular vote)

    We have a steadily increasing number of Democratic senators and representatives who vocally oppose the genocide in Gaza.

    Do they support cutting funding to Israel?

    The anti-genocide position correlates to politician’s generation, which is only going to improve further as Biden and Pelosi’s generation gets out and there are more of AOC’s generation and younger. Installing anti-genocidal local officials like sheriffs, judges, city councils, and university regents means peaceful protests wouldn’t be shut down as frequently.

    They can join the protesters for all Israel cares: what matters far more to Israel is that Congress and the White House continues to send money—as Biden has and as I think Harris will continue to—though I readily concede that there is a significant possibility that she will either not, or at least contribute far less.

    Also: Harris Campaign THROWS OUT Muslim Leader From Rally.

    My down ballot will not be a straight Democratic ticket. But I’m sure as hell not giving Trump even a miniscule edge by throwing my vote for US president away on RFK Jr. or Stein.

    Are you in a swing state, or are you in California, Maryland, Massachusetts, DC, Vermont, West Virginia, or Wyoming?




  • If Harris wins, the Democrats will learn that they can ignore progressives with relative impunity, and focus on what really matters—maintaining their power and positions;

    and with the American people’s (and other peoples’) deference to incumbents, she will either win again in 2028, or fail so badly through incompetence that the GOP wins.

    If she wins again in 2028, it will probably be the same-old-same-old as it was in Obama’s 2nd term (e.g. the rise of Islamic State, occupation of parts of Ukraine by Russia, reputed slave auctions in Libya), or Clinton’s 2nd (e. g. bombing Belgrade because he’s not man enough to own up to to his extra-marital affairs).

    If Trump wins, the genocide will indeed be worse, though I doubt much worse.

    He will end 2028 as an 82 year-old ending his 2nd term.

    With decreased vigor, and continued rallies, his underlings will be quite busy with back-stabbing each other, and we might see both Houses go Democrat in 2026—a few months after his 80th birthday.

    Presumably J.D. Vance will be the heir apparent, though far less loved than, say, Papa Bush.

    Let’s hope his Democrat rival in 2028 is up to it, but if wt:thon isn’t, it will be thons and the party’s fault.

    If Orange man wins the swings states, even though in each of those states, the votes for Democrats and 3rd party candidates combined significantly, perhaps greatly, exceeded votes for him, and if Californians stop being such 'fraidy cats and gave, say 15% to 3rd party candidates, resulting in yet again another overwhelming victory for the Democrat US Presidential candidate in California, the bigwigs in the DNC will realize that progressives will be ignored at the party’s peril.




  • So Palestinian-Americans, even those in non-swing states—including California, where I’d almost bet my $200 to anyone’s $20 that that state will go to Harris—should just shut up about Harris being pro-genocide for the next 90 or so hours (as they should have shut up about it for the past few months), and suck it up and vote for and the Democrats, including Harris, and in turn, reasonably assured that she, and other Democrats, from centrists to progressives, will nonetheless surprise us after 5 November and do a 180, or near 180, against Israel.

    Had Gore been elected in 2000, we might not have gotten Iraq or even a 911, but neither would we probably have had an Obama, for better or worse.

    IIUC, much of Carter’s retirement was building houses, giving interviews, writing books, and occasionally hanging out with current and ex- Presidents.

    IIUC, much of Clinton’s retirement was working on his foundations, giving thumbs up to his wife’s career, and Lewinsky looking better over the next 25 or so years.

    Obama has now volunteered to help save Harris’s campaign because she apparently can’t hack it without his or Cheney’s support, particularly with the current senile President saying stupid things and with the almost-as-old Bill Clinton doing almost as badly.

    The truce in Korea was made a year or so after Eisenhower was elected.

    IIUC, Nixon went to China, signed the first SALT treaty with the USSR, and ended American participation in Vietnam with the SVA actually holding off the NVA and VCs for about 2 years.

    Under his Democrat successor, Israel signed a peace deal with a dictatorship, Afghanistan was invaded, Iran turned Islamic and hostages were held for months.

    The Reagan/Bush Presidency ended with the end of the USSR and Warsaw Pact.

    Under Clinton, Belgrade was bombed partially because people focused too much on his sexually exploiting his power imbalance with an intern.

    Yes, Bush’s idiot son created disaster in Afghanistan and Iraq, but disasters continued under Obama, his presidency concluding with the Russian occupation of Crimea, Russia meddling in Donbas with Neo-Nazis serving as America’s proxies, the rise of Islamic State, temporary change in Egypt, and reportedly slave auctions in Libya.

    For all his rhetoric, Trump’s Presidency was perhaps the most pacific Republican Presidency since Hoover—over 90 years ago.

    Biden is elected with a lot of mail-in ballots (a great way for men to control the votes of their wives and girlfriends) and 16 months later, more of Ukraine is invaded. Genocide occurs under his watch, and instead of retiring gracefully as he perhaps should have 9 to 21 months ago, and give Harris a head start, we have a President calling about half of America garbage and this happening in Michigan: Harris Campaign THROWS OUT Muslim Leader From Rally.

    Do you think Liz Cheney or her father, Darth Vader, will oppose the genocide?

    Would you welcome an endorsement of Harris by Dubya Bush?

    but I suspect there’s some realpolitik bullshit and Biden’s traditional outlook on American foreign policy behind that support and maybe there’s a substantive shift after the election.

    I’m sure similar was said in late 1976.

    The 1992 election coincided with Fleetwood Mac (cued). (“Don’t. Stop. Thinking about Tomorrow. Don’t Stop. It’ll soon be here [… oooooo, don’t you look back.]”)

    Ah, those were the days: the fall of the Berlin Wall and that stupid war in Iraq about 2 years past.

    2008: “Yes we can.”

    “A vote for Stein [or West or Oliver] is a vote for Trump.”

    Sorry, you realpolitik-types need to do better.

    So downvote me, like many others are, because I think a vote for Harris is a vote for Trump-lite.