You mean the year of unpatched Windows 10.
As long as the browsers keep getting patches we’re all good.
You can now pay for extended updates.
It has been near for the past 15 years.
The year of the Linux desktop will happen when a large (EDIT: large, CONSUMER-FOCUSED AND CONSUMER-FRIENDLY) company decides to donate a remarkable amount of resources to the development and maintenance of a specific distro to make it user friendly and give it the feeling that someone who actually knows better than most users is taking care of important stuff in the background.
…Valve? 👀
Novell tried to do that with SuSE Linux in the early 2000’s and I’ve never forgiven them. Edit, AND did deals with Microsoft. Brr.
AND runs all windows programs right out of the box with no faffing about.
TBH: Most private users aren’t really using many programs. They are running chrome. Maybe an email client, but even that is declining. They are looking at pictures with the standard photo viewer and maybe at some PDFs and sometimes they are writing a letter and print it? Linux totally can do that.
Sure, but chances are if that’s your use case, you moved to a tablet years ago. Your photo storage is likely Facebook and Google Photos backup.
The casual people doggedly hanging onto PCs likely have some obscure software they need to run on it, either for work or personal use.
That’s not completely accurate. Remember, a lot of people want a full keyboard for typing; and an iPad with a keyboard is way more expensive than a mid-range Chromebook. Plus, a whole generation of students are growing up and entering the workforce having used nothing but ChromeOS for their entire middle school and high school careers; for them, a Chromebook feels very familiar.
Microsoft is VERY close to losing every install advantage they have. Gaming, corporate, devops, and government are the only use cases their leads are still in any way commanding in; and they’re fiddling while Valve puts the finishing touches on Steam OS, they’re about to lose their tenth consecutive K12 graduating class who will go into the workforce more familiar with ChromeOS than Windows, devops is increasingly moving toward web portals, and government…well, let’s face it, that’s not a particularly lucrative single game to win.
Google has already eaten Microsoft’s lunch and dinner. And now they’re about to split Windows’ breakfast with Valve. Unless they make some major changes, and quick, Microsoft is going to go into the 2030s less relevant than they’ve been in decades.
We’ve been through this before.
When Windows dropped most 32 bit support, desktop Linux had a chance just like this, but it didn’t happen then either. Unless some distro becomes a perfect 1:1 replacement for Windows on all hardware, with no changes in installation procedure. (including when it’s purchased) as well as: All software must run not only perfectly, but exactly the same, with everything from installation to every moment of use exactly the same, otherwise people will use Windows unpatched, or go out and buy new hardware.
In my opinion, the year of Linux on the desktop will only come when the desktop is abandoned, and it is no longer a commonly used platform.
Yes, it’s bleak, but we’ve been down this road before. Unless a distro becomes perfect, no significant change will come.
Scoop up that hardware being discarded, install your favorite distro (because you will be supporting it) and give it away to someone to learn Linux. There will never be a mass exodus, just install, educate, and chip away 1 user at a time.
Given this explanation, I am amazed I was able to use an iPad after having an android tablet. I had to pick new apps! Relearn the settings! In a different hardware!
I’m honestly proud of myself. Thanks.
When new OEM PCs comes with Linux pre-installed is when stuff happens. Not before then. Windows 11 adoption will be slow cause of their exclusion of old hardware. That old hardware will be scrapped or people just keep Windows 10 on it, regardless of security warnings.
The Desktop Linux experience, with gaming and all, seems pretty close to fulfilling everyone needs at this point. But it would not surprise me if Microsoft goes around paying OEM manufacturers to not bundle anything but windows with their products.
I recently made the switch and motivated a friend who is still on win7 to go to linux. While installing and setting up his system i realised that you still need some konsole handling skills, that normal windows user not really have. To me thats normal, growing up with dos and win311, but if you started with win 2000 or later. Thats all new stuff.
I think laptops/computers that are all ready setup completely usable, should be a thing, thought.
I think that a lot of people are missing this, my first Windows was Windows XP, so I’m pretty much used to doing everything through a GUI
i dont think we’ll have any large amount of preinstalls until the anticheat problem is solved
also you are just simply lying to yourself if you think desktop linux experience is fulfilling - i force my entire family to use linux and trust me the experience is not even close to being fulfilling for everyone
Anticheat is kernel compromise. No one should be using games that use that, or OSes that allow it.
As for fulfillment, unless you need very specific apps to do your job, I’m sure it can be fulfilling with the right DE and distro. For me, I’m using Linux since 1998, and I still prefer Mint over Arch, for example. It just works.
i didnt say “we need kernel anticheat on linux” i said we need a solution for it
But it would not surprise me if Microsoft goes around paying OEM manufacturers to not bundle anything but windows with their products.
They already did that in the 90s
Taking the dive on my gaming tower. Wish me luck bois
The windows 11 ads worked. I installed Linux a month ago and would say the transition is done and iam really happy.
Same here.
Migrated my home studio/gaming rig to Nobara this year. The only reason I have Windows still on a drive in my PC is because the sim racing titles I enjoy (mainly iRacing) use anti-cheat and I’m also a little bit scared of bricking my expensive peripherals trying to get them working on Linux. Seems like it’s very possible, but I’m still hesitant.
That said, literally every audio peripheral I have works perfect, as well as all my VSTs. Concerning gaming, the only title in my steam library that is giving me issues is Counter Strike 2 which I’m not interested in playing right now anyway.
10/10, would recommend migrating to Nobara.
Nice to her! Which vsts do you use? Sadly i stopped doing music some years ago, but i have bitwig and some bought vsts. I wondered using them will be an issue. Like if they have an installer for windows.
I had a big Waves set for a long time but I spent a year away from home with nothing but a work laptop and got used to free and stock Reaper plugins only. I enjoyed the simplicity so much that I purged my VST list down to what I was using on that laptop. I have some Aberrant DSP, Valhalla, Voxengo, among others. Some instruments too, namely Surge XT, Cardinal, GGD Drums, Vital, Redtron Mellotron, and a couple guitar sims. That’s what I can think of right now.
The plugins install via WINE just like they do on Windows, then you sync them with Yabridge for use with your DAW. It was pretty easy to get it all running.
Please Valve launch SteamOS, and I can be done with it
KDEs Project Banana OS basically sounds like Steamdecks immutable Arch with Plasma
Just install Bazzite, I think that’s basically SteamOS.
Oh huh, Bazzite’s based on Fedora Atomic. What’s the one that’s just Windows under the hood? I remember being surprised, “why would people want to install THAT on a Steam Deck”?
If i remember well, Chimera OS is what steam took inspiration of for steam OS.
It is available for desktop. take a look on it :) .
Look, I like Linux too, and I think governments should definitely use it to move away from Microsoft.
But as long as prebuilt PCs and laptops are sold with Windows, people will stay accustomed to it and be way more hesitant to switch. You can tell them, ‘It works just like Windows! It just looks a bit different!’ Yet their minds will still think, ‘New = scary.’ and won’t use it.
That was true in the past. But in the last 10 years people have stalled their PC upgrades. That’s the real reason why they don’t move to Win11, because they don’t want to buy a new PC. And that’s where Linux is going to get that market from MS.
There are more devices that ship with Linux or actively advertise support for it than ever tho. Of course far from the majority, but it’s a start that you can get basically anything with Linux if you want
Near? You can install Linux right now, no need to wait for anything to happen.
And that’s because the year of the Linux desktop was when Intel started full upstream contributions of drivers.
No, I literally cannot muster the willpower to switch.
I remember similar articles when Windows 7 reached end of life. People will complain but mostly adapt to Windows 11, and Linux will gain 0.2% market share.
When Windows 7 reached EOL in 2012, ChromeOS wasn’t even a year old, MacOS was too expensive, SteamOS wasn’t close on the horizon, tablets weren’t really usable, smartphones were severely underpowered, and most applications didn’t have web-based versions or replacements.
This time around, none of those things are true, and Windows 11 lost market share last month (which is frankly unprecedented).
Plus, even with that dearth of options, people griped and complained and refused for so long that Microsoft made a big marketing deal out of Windows 8.1. And even after that, they offered Windows 7 users free Windows 10 licenses to get them to upgrade.
Linux probably won’t get the crown (though I’d say a bump as high as 1-2% isn’t out of the question). It’ll probably be ChromeOS, if anything, simply because of the commanding lead Google has held for the past decade or so in K12. But in any case, if Microsoft doesn’t shift their strategy, they’re unlikely to win this one; there are a lot of options.
Will they though ? Me and all my nerd friends straight up ignored windows 8, I’m sure we weren’t alone. I also saw the writing on the wall with windows 11 and went with Linux for my new gaming PC
I ignored Windows 8, and even 10 for a while, but that was because Windows 7 was still working and supported and still kinda is my favorite version of Windows.
Then at some point I just switched to 10 and been using it ever since while installing the occasional distro to see if I can move off of Windows (Answer is still no) or as an emergency desktop bootable USB
If they aren’t smart enough to upgrade to 11 then they aren’t smart enough to switch to Linux
I doubt that people aren’t “smart enough”. I’ve seen the ads for windows 11 on my dad’s PC, they are literally full screen banners that guide you right to the upgrade. It couldn’t be more simple and obnoxious. The truth is that people simply don’t want Windows 11.
I would want Windows 11 if it wasn’t a total privacy nightmare. I have been a Windows user for a long time, but MS scared me away the moment the started requiring online accounts. Half my life is on my computer, they can fuck right off with that. Windows is generally pretty good for work computers, but I rather take my private business elsewhere
Well windowd have gon fown the shitter for work computers lately IMO.
Everything is slow, not the programs you’re running but everything taken care of by the OS. Like right click to get the context menu, why does it take real time to pup up? Launch a script, same thing. It’s like everything you do is first “analysed” before you’re “allowed” to do it. Maybe not even locally.
Also the OS shouldn’t get in the way, like you mistakenly write “python3” in the shell, suddenly the “windows shop” opens up, with the extra fuck you telling you that it hasn’t got that python3. Like wtf.
While I love Linux and wish more people would switch over, I know damn well most people just want to keep using Windows. The people who REALLY want Linux will find it.
Right now I’ve been offering my friends n family who don’t want Win11 two options.
-
I help them get started using Linux.
-
Or I show them how to get the IoT LTSC branch of Win10 that’ll still get security updates until at the latest 2032.
Most of them including the more tech savy folks just want to keep Win10 with updates, Some have opted to try Linux on a dual boot but few have stuck with it.
A few questions since you seem to know much more about this than I can probably even find from searching:
- What is “IoT”? What is “LTSC”?
- Other than update support, how is this different from my existing home laptop’s Windows 10?
- Is this free? Will there be obnoxious limitations or reminders to pay to activate?
- Why should I as a medium skill home computer user without work needs opt for this over Mint, Ubuntu, Nobara, Arch, or whatever other distro somebody would insist I use? I don’t need Office.
I’m no expert by any means but.
-
The the LTSC branch of windows is the enterprise version Microsoft sell only to businesses that require less flashy feature and longer security support since most business don’t update machines frequently. IOT just seems to be the LTSC version with the longest supported update cycle.
-
It’s slightly less bloated at least the Win10 version doesn’t come with pre-installed games and didn’t even have the Microsoft store installed by default. It still comes with telemetry but heard some say online they’ve had an easier time disabling it and keeping it disabled on the LTSC versions.
-
It’s “free” as in a sandwich you find on the side of the road is free. Microsoft REALLY doesn’t want regular users using their business only services but people always find a way.
-
It’s really only for people who currently refuse Linux but also can’t/won’t upgrade to Windows 11. I’m only suggesting it because I’d rather people at least still get security updates than use a completely unsupported OS.
Dope! I appreciate you taking the time! So it sounds like a slightly less bloated version of 10 that gets more support, but it may not be exactly legal and breezy to obtain for my personal home use.
With the possible exception of finding drivers for a device or two, it sounds like I’ll be better off just pivoting to a Linux distro mid 2025. I have been happy with SteamOS on my docked steam deck with m+kb and controller, so I’m sure I won’t be missing much by picking a popular distro that I can find troubleshooting guidance for when I hit inevitable snags.
-
-
Think about this for a second,Why we use Linux on supercomputers and servers and even our phones and embedded devices,But at home we are forced to use Windows from what i heard its built on stolen code and Microsoft had so much mess ups in the past, and why do manufactures put this stolen code os from a company with alot of mess ups in the past on their Pcs.
I finally switched. Honestly, the only thing I hate is the audio manager.
Which can easily be replaced 😁
