As a reminder, current estimates are that quantum cracking of a single 2048-bit RSA key would require a computer with 20 million qubits running in superposition for about eight hours. For context, quantum computers maxed out at 433 qubits in 2022 and 1,000 qubits last year. (A qubit is a basic unit of quantum computing, analogous to the binary bit in classical computing. Comparisons between qubits in true quantum systems and quantum annealers aren’t uniform.) So even when quantum computing matures sufficiently to break vulnerable algorithms, it could take decades or longer before the majority of keys are cracked.
The upshot of this latest episode is that while quantum computing will almost undoubtedly topple many of the most widely used forms of encryption used today, that calamitous event won’t happen anytime soon. It’s important that industries and researchers move swiftly to devise quantum-resistant algorithms and implement them widely. At the same time, people should take steps not to get steamrolled by the PQC hype train.
Just parroting stuff I heard at black hat, but aside from all the above don’t we first need to have millions of logical qubits? I believe the numbers people advertise now are just physical qubits.
Man, quantum computers has been about-to-break-encryption since the 90s. The hype never ends, just a new crop of people first hear it then figure out it’s bullshit.
Not to mention we already have quantum-computer-resistant cryptography.
I just lie in every encrypted message I send so even when they crack it they won’t know the truth
There’s an idea for a crypto. You send a message, another message (or 100000) gets created by ai I guess, and based on some predetermined hash the retriever must calculate which is correct, the lie/other message is discarded.
I’ll call it Never tell a lie, or NTL
That’s just a one-time pad with extra steps.
The quantum people won’t know that!
It’s like nuclear fusion, always just around the corner…
Didn’t you hear, they’ve almost succeeded at nuclear fusion, almost 90 whole seconds of stable fusion, any day now
I don’t know where the 20 million comes from Estimates are 4000 qbits for RSA 2028.
If qbits double every year, we’re at 20 million in 15 years. Changing crypto takes a very long time on some systems. If we’re at ~20000 in 5 years, we better have usable post quantum in place to start mitigations.
But I’m not convinced yet, we’ll have those numbers then. Especially error free qbits…
